A division uses a regression in which monthly advertising expenditures are used to predict monthly product sales both in millions of US dollars). The results show a regression coefficient for the independent variable equal to 0.8. This coefficient value indicates that:
Answer(s): C
The regression coefficient represents the change in the dependent variable corresponding to a unit change in the independent variable. Thus, it is the slope of the regression line.
Quality control programs employ many tools for problem definition and analysis. A scatter diagram is one of these tools. The objective of a scatter diagram is to:
Answer(s): A
The objective of a scatter diagram is to demonstrate correlations. Each observation is represented by a dot on a graph corresponding to a particular value of X the independent variable) and Y the dependent variable).
Violation of which assumption underlying regression analysis is prevalent in time series analysis?
Answer(s): B
Time series analysis is a regression model in which the independent variable is time. In time series analysis, the value of the next time period is frequently dependent on the value of the time period before that. Hence, the error terms are usually correlated or dependent on the prior period;i.e., they are characterized by autocorrelation serial correlation).
The moving-average method of forecasting:
Answer(s): D
The simple moving-average method is a smoothing technique that uses the experience of the past N periods through time period t) to forecast a value for the next period. Thus, the average includes each new observation and discards the oldest observation. The forecast formula for the next period for time period t+1) is the sum of the last N observations divided by N.
As part of a risk analysis, an auditor wishes to forecast the percentage growth in next month's sales for a particular plant using the past 30 months' sales results. Significant changes in the organization affecting sales volumes were made within the last 9 months. The most effective analysis technique to use would be
Under exponential smoothing, each forecast equals the sum of the last observation times the smoothing constant, plus the last forecast times one minus the constant. Thus, exponential means that greater weight is placed on the most recent data, with the weights of all data falling off exponentially as the data age. This feature is important because of the organizational changes that affected sales volume.
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