Valentine notes that a share of Trailblazer's stock is currently priced at $32. Moreover, she expects the dividend for next year to be $1.47 and forecasts that the price of one share of Trailblazer stock at the end of the year wilt be $35.In her report, Valentine makes the following statements about Trailblazer dividends:Statement 1: Trailblazer is expected to pay a dividend next year and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.Statement 2: The required rate of return for Trailblazer stock will likely exceed the growth rate of its dividends.Statement 3: Trailblazer is in a mature sector of its industry, and accordingly, I expect dividends to decline to a constant rate of 4% indefinitely.In speaking to a colleague at her firm, Valentine makes the following additional statements after her report is released:Statement 4: Trailblazer has a 10-year history of paying regular quarterly dividends. Statement 5: Over a recent 10-year period, Trailblazer has experienced one 3-year period of consecutive losses and another period of two annual losses in a row but has been extremely profitable in the remaining five years.Valentine is concerned about the theoretical validity of using the APT to obtain an estimate of the required rate of return on equity. She decides to attend a conference dealing specifically with estimation techniques that analysts can employ. At one of the conference seminars, the following points are made:Statement 6: The APT is a better approach than the CAPM because even though the factor risk premiums are difficult to estimate, the CAPM is more problematic because it relies on a single market risk premium estimate, which in turn leads to greater input uncertainty.Statement 7: Model uncertainty is a problem with the APT but not with the CAPM.Valentine is also analyzing the stock of Farwell, Inc. Farwell shares are currently trading at $48 based on current earnings of $4 and a current dividend of $2.60. Dividends are expected to grow at 5% per year indefinitely. The risk-free rate is 3.5%, the market risk premium is 4.5%, and Farwell's beta is estimated to be 1.2.Do Statements 4 and 5 support the decision by Valentine to use a dividend discount model?
Answer(s): B
For a DDM ro be appropriate for valuation purposes, dividends must be a reasonably good measure of the cash flow of a firm. Dividends are appropriate for measuring cash flow when a company has a history of dividend payments, when the dividend policy is clear and related to the firm's earnings, and when the perspective is that of a minority shareholder. The two statements relate to the history of dividends and rhe relationship between dividends and earnings. Statement 4 supports the use of dividends since the history of paying dividends is fairly long and consistent.Statement 5 suggests that the relationship between dividends and earnings is not very strong since the company continues to pay regular dividends regardless of whether losses are incurred or profits are earned. (Study Session 11, LOS 40.b)
Valentine notes that a share of Trailblazer's stock is currently priced at $32. Moreover, she expects the dividend for next year to be $1.47 and forecasts that the price of one share of Trailblazer stock at the end of the year wilt be $35.In her report, Valentine makes the following statements about Trailblazer dividends:Statement 1: Trailblazer is expected to pay a dividend next year and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.Statement 2: The required rate of return for Trailblazer stock will likely exceed the growth rate of its dividends.Statement 3: Trailblazer is in a mature sector of its industry, and accordingly, I expect dividends to decline to a constant rate of 4% indefinitely.In speaking to a colleague at her firm, Valentine makes the following additional statements after her report is released:Statement 4: Trailblazer has a 10-year history of paying regular quarterly dividends. Statement 5: Over a recent 10-year period, Trailblazer has experienced one 3-year period of consecutive losses and another period of two annual losses in a row but has been extremely profitable in the remaining five years.Valentine is concerned about the theoretical validity of using the APT to obtain an estimate of the required rate of return on equity. She decides to attend a conference dealing specifically with estimation techniques that analysts can employ. At one of the conference seminars, the following points are made:Statement 6: The APT is a better approach than the CAPM because even though the factor risk premiums are difficult to estimate, the CAPM is more problematic because it relies on a single market risk premium estimate, which in turn leads to greater input uncertainty.Statement 7: Model uncertainty is a problem with the APT but not with the CAPM.Valentine is also analyzing the stock of Farwell, Inc. Farwell shares are currently trading at $48 based on current earnings of $4 and a current dividend of $2.60. Dividends are expected to grow at 5% per year indefinitely. The risk-free rate is 3.5%, the market risk premium is 4.5%, and Farwell's beta is estimated to be 1.2.Are Statements 6 and 7 correct?
Answer(s): A
From a purely theoretical point of view, one cannot say that the APT is better than the CAPM because the CAPM relies on a single risk premium. If anything, due to the greater number of inputs required in APT estimation, input uncertainty is probably a more significant problem for the APT than it is for the CAPM. Thus, Statement 6 is incorrect. Statement 7 is not a reasonable statement as both approaches suffer from model uncertainty. It is not clear in the case of the APT what the appropriate number of factors to use is; for the CAPM, the appropriate proxy for the market is not clear. (Study Session 10, LOS 35.b,d)
Valentine notes that a share of Trailblazer's stock is currently priced at $32. Moreover, she expects the dividend for next year to be $1.47 and forecasts that the price of one share of Trailblazer stock at the end of the year wilt be $35.In her report, Valentine makes the following statements about Trailblazer dividends:Statement 1: Trailblazer is expected to pay a dividend next year and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.Statement 2: The required rate of return for Trailblazer stock will likely exceed the growth rate of its dividends.Statement 3: Trailblazer is in a mature sector of its industry, and accordingly, I expect dividends to decline to a constant rate of 4% indefinitely.In speaking to a colleague at her firm, Valentine makes the following additional statements after her report is released:Statement 4: Trailblazer has a 10-year history of paying regular quarterly dividends. Statement 5: Over a recent 10-year period, Trailblazer has experienced one 3-year period of consecutive losses and another period of two annual losses in a row but has been extremely profitable in the remaining five years.Valentine is concerned about the theoretical validity of using the APT to obtain an estimate of the required rate of return on equity. She decides to attend a conference dealing specifically with estimation techniques that analysts can employ. At one of the conference seminars, the following points are made:Statement 6: The APT is a better approach than the CAPM because even though the factor risk premiums are difficult to estimate, the CAPM is more problematic because it relies on a single market risk premium estimate, which in turn leads to greater input uncertainty.Statement 7: Model uncertainty is a problem with the APT but not with the CAPM.Valentine is also analyzing the stock of Farwell, Inc. Farwell shares are currently trading at $48 based on current earnings of $4 and a current dividend of $2.60. Dividends are expected to grow at 5% per year indefinitely. The risk-free rate is 3.5%, the market risk premium is 4.5%, and Farwell's beta is estimated to be 1.2.The justified leading and justified trailing P/E ratios of Farwell are closest to: Justified leading P/E Justified trailing P/E
required return = 3.5% + (1-2 x 4.5%) = 8.9% retention ratio = b = ($4.00 - $2.60)/ $4.00 = 0.35 payout ratio = (1 - b) = 1 - 0.35 - 0.65Notice that the current market price is irrelevant for calculating justified P/E ratios. (Study Session 11, LOS 40.g)
Tom Vadney, CFA, is president and CEO of Vadney Research and Advisors (VRA), a large equity research firm that specializes in providing international investment and advisory services to global portfolio managers. He has a staff of five junior analysts and three senior analysts covering industries and firms across the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific regions.In a recent meeting with an institutional portfolio manager, Vadney is asked to review the differences between U.S. GAAP and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as well as provide a comprehensive industry analysis for the telecommunications sector in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Vadney asks Maria Mnoyan, a senior analyst covering the sector, to research the requested information for the client meeting.Prior to the meeting, Vadney and Mnoyan meet to prepare for the client presentation. They first discuss differences between U.S. GAAP and IFRS. Mnoyan states that although there will be increasing convergence between the two accounting standards, one major difference currently is that IFRS permits either the "partial goodwill" or "full goodwill" method to value the goodwill and the noncontrolling interest under the acquisition method. U.S. GAAP requires the full goodwill method. Vadney adds that U.S. GAAP requires equity method accounting for joint ventures, while under IFRS, proportionate consolidation is preferred, but the equity method is permitted.Vadney then asks Mnoyan to share her findings on the telecommunications sector. Mnoyan first presents an overview of the competitive forces that characterize the sector in the two regions. In particular, she notes that the sector in both regions is characterized by high switching costs. Vadney asks how high switching costs would affect the bargaining power of buyers and suppliers.Mnoyan firmly believes that investing in companies located in developing countries provides strong growth potential through technological change and increases in capital, labor, and savings that contribute to higher dividend levels, even if the dividend growth rate is unaffected.In her research report Mnoyan identifies several countries and industries with attractive investment potential. She notices that the telecommunications sector in one of the countries is characterized by a duopoly. The $50 billion telecom industry in another country in her analysis is dominated by h\e firms with market shares of $10 billion each.Finally, Vadney and Mnoyan discuss investment opportunities in specific firms. Mnoyan values firms using both the discounted cash flow model and the franchise value method. She makes the following statements on the franchise value method:Statement 1: A higher asset turnover ratio increases the franchise P/E ratio, one of the components of the intrinsic P/E value.Statement 2: When firms pay out profits as dividends at a higher rate, a firm's intrinsic P/E value decreases.Are Mnoyan and Vadney correct about differences between U.S. GAAP and IFRS?
Both statements arc correct. IFRS permits either the partial goodwill or full goodwill method to value goodwill and the noncontrolling interest under the acquisition method. U.S. GAAP requires the full goodwill method. U.S. GAAP requires equity method accounting for joint ventures. Under IFRS, proportionate consolidation is preferred, but the equity method is permitted. (Study Session 11, LOS 36.a)
Tom Vadney, CFA, is president and CEO of Vadney Research and Advisors (VRA), a large equity research firm that specializes in providing international investment and advisory services to global portfolio managers. He has a staff of five junior analysts and three senior analysts covering industries and firms across the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific regions.In a recent meeting with an institutional portfolio manager, Vadney is asked to review the differences between U.S. GAAP and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as well as provide a comprehensive industry analysis for the telecommunications sector in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Vadney asks Maria Mnoyan, a senior analyst covering the sector, to research the requested information for the client meeting.Prior to the meeting, Vadney and Mnoyan meet to prepare for the client presentation. They first discuss differences between U.S. GAAP and IFRS. Mnoyan states that although there will be increasing convergence between the two accounting standards, one major difference currently is that IFRS permits either the "partial goodwill" or "full goodwill" method to value the goodwill and the noncontrolling interest under the acquisition method. U.S. GAAP requires the full goodwill method. Vadney adds that U.S. GAAP requires equity method accounting for joint ventures, while under IFRS, proportionate consolidation is preferred, but the equity method is permitted.Vadney then asks Mnoyan to share her findings on the telecommunications sector. Mnoyan first presents an overview of the competitive forces that characterize the sector in the two regions. In particular, she notes that the sector in both regions is characterized by high switching costs. Vadney asks how high switching costs would affect the bargaining power of buyers and suppliers.Mnoyan firmly believes that investing in companies located in developing countries provides strong growth potential through technological change and increases in capital, labor, and savings that contribute to higher dividend levels, even if the dividend growth rate is unaffected.In her research report Mnoyan identifies several countries and industries with attractive investment potential. She notices that the telecommunications sector in one of the countries is characterized by a duopoly. The $50 billion telecom industry in another country in her analysis is dominated by h\e firms with market shares of $10 billion each.Finally, Vadney and Mnoyan discuss investment opportunities in specific firms. Mnoyan values firms using both the discounted cash flow model and the franchise value method. She makes the following statements on the franchise value method:Statement 1: A higher asset turnover ratio increases the franchise P/E ratio, one of the components of the intrinsic P/E value.Statement 2: When firms pay out profits as dividends at a higher rate, a firm's intrinsic P/E value decreases.Mnoyan's best response to Vadney on how high switching costs affect the bargaining power of buyers and suppliers, respectively, should be:
Switching costs are costs incurred by the buyer in switching from one supplier to another. High switching costs act as a disincentive for buyers to switch products and decrease the bargaining power of buyers. From the supplier's perspective, the higher the switching costs, the greater the bargaining power of suppliers. (Study Session 11, LOS 36.c,d and LOS 37.a,b)
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